SWODY1
SPC AC 161935
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CST TUE NOV 16 2010
VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC...
...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
HAVE OPTED TO REDUCE THE RISK OF SEVERE ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL AS FLOW
HAS VEERED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE NERN GULF COAST.
OTHERWISE...WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE RISK OVER MUCH OF THE IMMEDIATE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST WITH 60F+ SFC DEW POINTS NOW SPREADING INLAND AS FAR AS THE
NCNTRL NC/VA BORDER. EVEN SO INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 500 J/KG
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN NC INTO SERN VA. AS LLJ
INCREASES ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR WIND PRODUCING
SUPERCELLS OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
..SPC.. 11/16/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2010/
...SERN U.S...
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MID TN IN RESPONSE TO STRONG S/WV ROTATING
ACROSS GULF STATES. LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK NNEWD TO LWR GREAT LAKES
LATER TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ERN AL SWEEPS E/NE ACROSS THE
SERN STATES AND OFFSHORE BY 12Z WED.
WHILE THE LARGE SCALE KINEMATICS AND POWERFUL MID/UPR JET NOW GULF
COAST STATES WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT SHEAR AND ASCENT TO SUPPORT A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...THE AIR MASS INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WILL
BE VERY LIMITED.
THE ONGOING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE NOW CROSSING SRN GA/NERN FL
HAS ALREADY INGESTED THE BEST AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE EARLIER THIS
MORNING. WITH MORE OF A DRIER LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY OFF THE FL
PENINSULA AND POOR LAPSE RATES...THE THREAT OF SEVERE INCLUDING
BRIEF ROTATING STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS LINE APPROACHES THE ATLANTIC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHER N MOISTURE IS INCREASING INTO ERN CAROLINAS...HOWEVER THE
SOURCE REGION OFF THE ATLANTIC IS A MODIFIED POLAR AIR MASS AND THUS
OF LIMITED INSTABILITY.
TONIGHT...A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED ALONG THE ERN AL COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. WHILE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
WEAK /I.E MLCAPE VALUES LESS THAN 500-700 J PER KG/...THE INTENSE
WIND FIELD AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
A CORRIDOR OF WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN ANY THREAT TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WHICH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE
LATER TONIGHT.
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