SWODY1
SPC AC 151956
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST MON NOV 15 2010
VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE CNTRL/ERN GULF
COAST...
.CHANGE TO PREV OUTLOOK:
1) SHIFT E EDGE OF SLIGHT RISK FARTHER E ALONG THE ERN GULF COAST.
BAND OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD IMPULSE EJECTING INTO THE TN
VLY THIS AFTERNOON IS MOVING ENE SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR GA/FL/AL BORDERS. OVERNIGHT...NEW STORMS
FORMING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN OK/TX
WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST. RECENT MODELS HAVE
HINTED AT A FASTER EVOLUTION/MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS AND PARTS OF
THE ERN GULF COAST MAY EXPERIENCE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS BY 12Z.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.
..RACY/HALES/STOPPKOTTE.. 11/15/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST MON NOV 15 2010/
...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
DEEPENING TROUGH SRN PLAINS SUPPORTED BY VERY STRONG NLY JET MAX
CURRENTLY ID/UT INTO AZ. WITH THE UPSTREAM VIGOROUS TROUGH MOVING
INTO PAC NW TONIGHT...THE PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
LWR MS VALLEY WITH RESULTANT VERY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES IN SUPPORT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL.
A LEAD S/WV TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG WSWLY FLOW IN CONCERT WITH
STEADY INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM SRN GA/AL TO SERN LA HAS GENERATED CONSIDERABLE
OVERNIGHT NON-SEVERE CONVECTION.
AS THE SRN PLAINS TROUGH APPROACHES MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE ON THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE OVER SRN MS TONIGHT. INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS LWR MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN NEWD INTO AL BY 12Z TUE AS
STRONG JET MAX ROTATES EWD ALONG CENTRAL GULF COAST.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS WITH PASSAGE OF FIRST
IMPULSE CONFINING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDING BRIEF SUPERCELLS NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM SERN LA TO
SRN AL. AIR MASS INITIALLY CONTAINS MINIMAL INSTABILITY GIVEN THE
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STILL ARRIVING GULF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER SOME DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH STEADY GULF MOISTURE
INFLOW WILL LEAD TO MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG SERN LA/SRN MS/SWRN AL THIS
AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM MS INTO AL WILL
ALLOW MOIST WARM SECTOR TO SPREAD FURTHER INLAND ACROSS SRN AL/FL
PANHANDLE. AT THE SAME TIME THE SHEAR PROFILES WILL INTENSIFY
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS/ISOLATED
TORNADOES. KINEMATICS OVERNIGHT...IE SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT...WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS HOWEVER
INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY AOB
500 J/KG. INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
GULF COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE MID/UPR 60S.
HAVE EXTENDED THE RISK 0F SUPERCELLS/ISOLATED TORNADOES EWD ACROSS
SERN AL AND FL PANHANDLE FOR TONIGHT AS SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AFTER 06Z.
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