SWODY2
SPC AC 151721
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CST MON NOV 15 2010
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN GULF
COASTAL AREA...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SRN PLAINS TODAY WILL EJECT ENE
ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY AS ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP NWD FROM NWRN AL INTO OHIO BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT ADVANCES SEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SERN SEABOARD
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
...ERN GULF COAST AND SERN STATES...
PLUME OF 1-1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE TRANSPORTED NWD
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FROM THE ERN GULF COAST NWD
TO ERN VA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOIST-ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH
STRONGEST THERMAL BUOYANCY LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO THE ERN GULF
COASTAL REGION. DESPITE LOW CAPE POTENTIAL...THE EJECTING IMPULSE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSTANTIAL MID/UPPER-FLOW.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ENE INTO THE ERN GULF REGION
THROUGH MID-DAY AMIDST 50 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WILL RELAX BY MID-DAY...THERE WILL BE RISKS FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG
WITH DAMAGING WIND THREATS.
LATER IN THE DAY...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO LOCATIONS FARTHER NE AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED AND AXIS OF THE 50 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET TRANSLATES INTO THE CAROLINAS. NRN EDGE OF MORNING
STORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITH ADDITIONAL WARM-SECTOR STORMS
FORMING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS/PIEDMONT OF
NC/SC/GA. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR...THREATS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
ORGANIZED STORMS /MIX OF LINEAR AND DISCRETE/ WILL EXIST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...THE FIVE PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE
BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE SERN ATLANTIC
STATES.
..RACY.. 11/15/2010
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