SWODY2
SPC AC 271728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST SAT NOV 27 2010
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE CONUS DURING DAY 2. A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN
U.S. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A DEEPER FULL LATITUDE
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...
WHILE A LARGE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ERN STATES. WITHIN
THE WRN TROUGH...A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRACK NEWD FROM THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TO THE NRN PLAINS...WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGS SEWD INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES/NRN MEXICO.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ERN STATES SHIFTS SLOWLY TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
...NWRN GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE PLAINS COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE NWRN GULF COAST REGION AND EVEN ACROSS
THIS AREA...THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS UNCERTAIN. A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SURGE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S/ SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...
29/06-12Z...OR POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL AFTER THE START OF DAY 3. IN
ADDITION TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE QUALITY/TIMING OF MOISTURE
RETURN...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CAP
ACROSS THIS REGION. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WRN
TROUGH COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SHOWERS FROM THE NWRN GULF COAST TO THE
ARKLATEX LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH FORECAST
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS PRECLUDE THE
INTRODUCTION OF A GENERAL TSTM AREA...THE OVERALL TSTM POTENTIAL MAY
RAMP UP FAIRLY QUICKLY AT THE START OF DAY 3 AS STRONGER FORCING
REACHES THIS REGION.
...S FL/KEYS...
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA ON SUNDAY...THOUGH WEAK
MIDLEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
LIMIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH A STRIKE OR TWO COULD OCCUR...
OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT THE
INCLUSION OF A GENERAL TSTM AREA.
..PETERS.. 11/27/2010
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