Tuesday, November 9, 2010

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 091710
SWODY2
SPC AC 091709

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CST TUE NOV 09 2010

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES ON
WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ONE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE
OTHER AFFECTING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL POSE A
VERY MINIMAL RISK OF DEEP/ELECTRIFIED CONVECTION.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NM WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ACCELERATE NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/IA/MN DURING
THE DAY...YIELDING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SUGGEST THAT WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 200 J/KG OR
LESS. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO
ATTAIN SUFFICIENT DEPTH FOR LIGHTNING. NEVERTHELESS...WILL MAINTAIN
A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM. IF ANY
CONVECTION CAN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF GUSTY SURFACE WINDS NEAR CORES.

...FOUR CORNERS REGION...
ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO CA/NV BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND INTO AZ/NM BY AFTERNOON. THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WILL RESULT IN STRONG FORCING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN UT/NORTHERN CA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE
VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTH
OF FORCING SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO.

..HART.. 11/09/2010

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