SWODY3
SPC AC 010709
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 AM CDT MON NOV 01 2010
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...ERN GULF STATES...
UPPER LOW OVER TX WILL BE NUDGED INTO THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS FALL UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MID MS/OH
VALLEY REGION. LATEST NAM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING
THIS SCENARIO WITH STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW AT LOWER LATITUDES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF FL...H5 FLOW IN EXCESS OF
50KT AT LEAST 150 MI OFFSHORE. AS A RESULT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
LIKELY BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN OTHERWISE MOISTENING
WARM ADVECTION REGIME. GIVEN THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE UPPER
LOW/FORCING OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO AT THE END OF THE DAY3
PERIOD...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OVER FL SHOULD DO SO
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE CONVECTION.
..DARROW.. 11/01/2010
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