Friday, November 5, 2010

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 050644
SWODY3
SPC AC 050643

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 AM CDT FRI NOV 05 2010

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE SOME AMPLIFICATION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF A BROADER SCALE TROUGH ADVANCING INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC COAST IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS PARTS OF CALIFORNIA AND THE
GREAT BASIN BY 12Z MONDAY. VARIABILITY AMONG THE GUIDANCE IS
CONSIDERABLE...BUT THIS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ENHANCED FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES ...THE
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND SHASTA/SISKIYOU REGION...AND THE
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL COOLING ACROSS THIS REGION...AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

EAST OF THE ROCKIES...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT INLAND MOISTURE
RETURN OFF A SLOWLY MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
MAY COMMENCE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST...WITH LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

..KERR.. 11/05/2010

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