SWOD48
SPC AC 190940
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CST FRI NOV 19 2010
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXPECTED LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO
PIVOT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
WITHIN A BROAD/EASTWARD-MIGRATORY LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS.
WITH ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO CROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON DAY 4/MONDAY...THIS SCENARIO COULD SUPPORT SOME RELATIVELY
LOW-TOPPED/FAST MOVING TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY
WILL BE REGARDING LIMITED MOISTURE/BUOYANCY GIVEN LITTLE OPPORTUNITY
FOR CONSEQUENTIAL MOISTURE RETURN. NONETHELESS...SOME STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DAY 4/MONDAY ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION WITHIN A STRONGLY FORCED/SHEARED REGIME.
THEREAFTER...TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN
VALLEY/ARKLATEX AND GULF COAST STATES ON DAYS 5/6...GENERALLY ALONG
A DECELERATING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...A PARTICULARLY
WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED.
..GUYER.. 11/19/2010
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