SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020033
TXZ000-020230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2032
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 020033Z - 020230Z
THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...INCLUDING THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO
AREAS. A WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...A ZONE OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY PROVIDED AN EARLIER FOCUS
FOR A FAILED ATTEMPT AT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THIS ZONE MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR INCREASING NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THE 03-06Z TIME
FRAME...AS MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION STRENGTHENS
DRAMATICALLY IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE. ONCE
THIS OCCURS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND SIZABLE CAPE WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE
HAIL...PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN THE PRESENCE OF
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...AS WEST NORTHWESTERLY
500 MB FLOW STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF 40-50 KT.
..KERR.. 11/02/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 29640003 30149937 30499822 30779737 30729672 30119666
29679714 29349797 29189873 29109956 29259988 29640003
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