SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042237
FLZ000-042330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2037
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CDT THU NOV 04 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 042237Z - 042330Z
A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL PENINSULA THIS
EVENING WITH THE THREAT REMAINING ISOLATED. ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
LARGER-SCALE AND MORE INTENSE LINE ORGANIZATION.
SEVERAL LINES OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL FL WITH THE
FIRST LOCATED ALONG A COLD FRONT IN THE OCALA VICINITY. THE SECOND
IS ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN
TAMPA AND ORLANDO WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 F. IN SPITE OF THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...MLCAPE VALUES
ARE ONLY ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL FL.
THIS FACTOR SHOULD HELP KEEP THE STRONGER STORMS ISOLATED.
CONCERNING VERTICAL SHEAR...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 65 KT RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS AND LINEAR ORGANIZATION
AHEAD OF A SLAB OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
CNTRL FL MAY RESULT IN A THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..BROYLES.. 11/04/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 27688114 27608124 27328166 27228196 27138232 27258258
27478273 28018291 28938259 29248216 29478134 29268089
28438059 27688114
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