SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121659
OKZ000-TXZ000-121830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2040
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CST FRI NOV 12 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX AND SCNTRL/SERN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 121659Z - 121830Z
...LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST...
A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEEPENING FROM FORT WORTH
METRO NWD TO NEAR ADA OK SINCE 16Z. STORM INTENSIFICATION APPEARS
RELATED TO WEAK INSOLATION/BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND
MODIFIED FWD SOUNDING SUGGESTS AROUND 865 J/KG MLCAPE. LATEST
VWP-DERIVED HODOGRAPH FROM FWD EXHIBITED AROUND 20 KTS OF SFC-1KM
SHEAR AND AROUND 50 KTS OF FLOW BETWEEN 4-6 KM. GIVEN LOW LCLS AND
MODEST INSTABILITY...A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG WITH
GUSTY/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ENE THROUGH NCNTRL/NERN TX AND
SCNTRL/SERN OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...INCLUDING KDFW/KDAL AIRPORTS
1745-1830Z. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THAT GIVEN INCREASING LINEAR
FORCING...MODE WILL TRANSITION TO LARGELY LINE SEGMENTS WITH PERHAPS
EMBEDDED BRIEF SUPERCELL TO BOW STRUCTURES. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED OWING TO LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION.
..RACY.. 11/12/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 32019636 31849715 31899758 33389738 34969714 35249626
35079574 34479543 33799545 33109573 32629585 32279617
32019636
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