Monday, November 15, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2045

ACUS11 KWNS 151830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151830
FLZ000-ALZ000-151930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2045
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CST MON NOV 15 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL AND WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 151830Z - 151930Z

...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...WITH BRIEF TORNADOES...MAY OCCUR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS NEAR THE SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE REGION AND A TORNADO WATCH
ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

WV IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING NEWD THROUGH NRN
MS...AND APPEARED TO BE PROVIDING LIFT FOR CONVECTION FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL AL SWWD INTO FAR SERN LA. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...
MUCAPES BETWEEN 250-500 J/KG...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 40-50 KT IS
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...LOW LEVEL
VEERING WIND PROFILES WERE RESULTING IN 1 KM SHEAR AT 20-30 KT.
GIVEN THE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE... THE
POTENTIAL FOR LONG LIVED TORNADOES APPEARS LOW. HOWEVER... THE
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR COMBINED WITH ENHANCED SHEAR NEAR A STATIONARY
FRONT...LOCATED NEAR THE AL/FL PANHANDLE BORDER...MAY SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST BRIEF
TORNADOES. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WATCH AND DEPENDS ON
EVOLUTION OF THE STORMS DURING THE NEXT HOUR. WHATEVER THREAT
DEVELOPS...SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME AS THE MS UPPER
VORT MAX LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE AREA AND...AND THE STORM FOCUS
SHIFTS FURTHER WEST WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

..IMY.. 11/15/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 30398588 30458668 30798774 31238759 31398676 31308606
31278525 30808502 30398588

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