SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201927
WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-202230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2051
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CST SAT NOV 20 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ID / NWRN WY
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 201927Z - 202230Z
HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS ERN ID AND SHIFT INTO PARTS OF NWRN WY THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SHARP BAROCLINIC GRADIENT DRAPED NW TO SE
NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH AN INTERSECTING FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NEAR THE YELLOWSTONE AREA SWWD THRU FAR NWRN UT. TIME LAPSE
RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWS A MESOSCALE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE
FRONT /OBSERVED SNOWFALL RATES 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH THIS FEATURE/
SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY.
LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER SPEED MAX HAS BEEN PROVIDING UPPER
FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT WITH
TIME THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT EWD AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
TO THE W AMPLIFIES THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED BOUNDARIES. OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL AID IN
SUPPORTING LIKELY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS.
..SMITH.. 11/20/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...PIH...
LAT...LON 43821168 44901111 44961000 44380957 43061039 42361230
42491262 43821168
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