SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221851
WIZ000-221945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2060
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 221851Z - 221945Z
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AS SURFACE-BASED
TSTMS BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SERN WI. A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND AN
ISOLD TORNADO MAY WARRANT A TORNADO WATCH CONTINGENT UPON TRENDS IN
THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.
18Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A DEEPENING 1002 LOW NEAR THE
IA/WI/IL BORDER TRACKING TO THE NE TOWARDS GRB BY 00Z WHERE
SUBSTANTIAL PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS NRN IL INTO SRN WI
THE PAST FEW HOURS /1-2 MB PER HR/. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD IS
DRAPED EWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW STRADDLING JUST N OF THE WI/IL
BORDER. THE AIRMASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS QUICKLY DESTABILIZING
WITH UPWARDS 500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE FEEDING IN FROM THE S. 18Z DVN
RAOB SHOWED A MARKED CHANGE IN THE WIND PROFILE...LENDING A VERY
SUPPORTIVE SUPERCELL WIND PROFILE /300 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH/ AND SOME
INCREASING RISK FOR DMGG WINDS AND AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO
DOWNSTREAM--PERHAPS AS FAR N AS SERN WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
..SMITH.. 11/22/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MKX...
LAT...LON 42538982 43098957 43348831 43238781 42508777 42538982
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