SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231813
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-232015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2071
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX/CENTRAL LA AND MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 231813Z - 232015Z
ISOLATED WARM SECTOR STORMS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON FROM SE TX
ENEWD INTO CENTRAL MS...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
WARM SECTOR CONVECTION...INCLUDING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...IS
ONGOING GENERALLY N OF I-10 ACROSS SE TX AND SW LA...WITH OTHER
PRE-FRONTAL STORMS FARTHER ENE INTO CENTRAL MS. THIS CONVECTION HAS
FORMED IN A ZONE OF MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...BUT IS WEAKLY
FORCED AND SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE 30+ KT MIDLEVEL FLOW...IN AN ENVIRONMENT
WITH MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY
WEAK ACROSS THIS AREA...AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STORMS WITH WEAK
ROTATION...BUT LITTLE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.
..THOMPSON.. 11/23/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 30659185 30139430 29819510 29699587 30049629 30649602
31159490 31559311 32118989 32118910 31658907 30659185
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