SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231947
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-232115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2072
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NE TX...SE OK...AND SW AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 231947Z - 232115Z
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ALONG A STALLING FRONT ACROSS SW AR...BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
SEVERE STORM THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WATCH.
SATELLITE AND COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS UNDERWAY TO THE NW OF TXK...ALONG A SLOW-MOVING
SURFACE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE WNW-ESE BOUNDARY ORIENTATION SUGGESTS THAT STORMS FORMING ON THE
FRONT WILL CROSS INTO THE COOLER/MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SW
AR WITHIN AN HOUR OF INITIATION. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR ARE
AT LEAST SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG THE FRONT...THOUGH
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL
PRODUCTION...AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE ADJACENT WARM SECTOR
WILL TEND TO LIMIT ANY TORNADO THREAT. THUS...WHILE A FEW
ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE THREAT FOR ANY PARTICULAR TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A WATCH.
..THOMPSON.. 11/23/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 33889376 33629291 33409281 33109303 33209400 33609474
34079499 34289482 34319432 33889376
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