MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2073

ACUS11 KWNS 232014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232013
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-240015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2073
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN UT / NERN NV / SERN ID / SWRN WY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 232013Z - 240015Z

A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES /I.E. UP
TO 1 INCH/HR/ IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN NV EXTENDING
NEWD INTO SERN ID AND WRN WY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST. HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE FORECAST FIRST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
GREAT SALT LAKE AND THEN TOWARDS THIS EVENING OVER THE WASATCH MTNS
WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER RATES /2 INCHES PER HOUR/ WILL BE LIKELY.

20Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A LOW NEAR THE WY TETONS WITH A COLD
FRONT DRAPED SWWD TO THE NRN TIP OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE AND THEN
SWWD NEAR NFL IN W-CNTRL NV. A RESIDENT ARCTIC FRONT IS LOCATED
FROM NEAR YELLOWSTONE PARK ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
SURFACE TEMPS AHEAD OF THE SEWD PROGRESSING FRONT ACROSS NRN UT ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 20S WITH
FROPA...AND COINCIDENT WITH A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW AS THE COLUMN
QUICKLY SATURATES.

MODEL GUIDANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING INDICATES A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES AS THE
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH /INITIALLY LOCATED OVER FAR WRN ID-NRN CA
AT 20Z/ PIVOTS EWD TOWARDS THE AREA. A DEEPER/STRONGER VERTICAL
RESPONSE IS EXPECTED AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THUS...SNOWFALL RATES
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MAXIMIZED AFTER 00Z AND FAVORABLY TIME OVER
THE WASATCH WHERE ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL LIKELY YIELD 2
INCHES/HR OR GREATER RATES.

..SMITH.. 11/23/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...LKN...

LAT...LON 40211733 41301405 42291247 42781170 43881079 44091019
43180989 41501048 40131078 39081111 38721148 38931200
39801219 40241285 40061381 39361599 39271746 40211733

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