SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251709
TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-251845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CST THU NOV 25 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN THROUGH ERN AR...WRN TN...NWRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 251709Z - 251845Z
RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST STORMS MAY BE INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND
ORGANIZATION. SRN THROUGH ERN AR...WRN TN AND NWRN MS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH.
STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN
WARM SECTOR FROM NERN TX THROUGH NRN LA AND ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF
AR. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND
AN INVERSION PRESENT AT 700 MB. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A ZONE OF
PARTIAL CLOUD BREAKS SPREADING NWD THROUGH NRN LA AND SRN AR...AND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION NEXT FEW
HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT INCREASE IN LIGHTNING WITH SOME OF
THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS AR...SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION MAY BE
DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING INVERSION AND BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING. A 50 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT NEWD THROUGH THE
LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN EXCESS OF 300
M2/S2. SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES
AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
..DIAL.. 11/25/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 33349342 35769076 36038941 34379019 33189147 33349342
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