Tuesday, December 14, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Amend 1

ACUS01 KWNS 142125
SWODY1
SPC AC 142124

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 PM CST TUE DEC 14 2010

VALID 142125Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AMENDED TO ADD LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES TO PARTS OF SWRN WA
AND WRN ORE

...SWRN WA SWD TO NWRN AND WEST CENTRAL ORE...
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE AIR MASS FROM SWRN WA TO WEST
CENTRAL ORE IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION...AND SHOULD
REMAIN DESTABILIZED UNTIL EARLY EVENING. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
/35-40 KT/ AND SFC-1 KM SHEAR /25-35 KT/ ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR
ORGANIZED LOW-TOPPED STORMS WITH ROTATION. ALTHOUGH WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF STRONGER SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR SUGGESTS LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM MESOSCALE DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2128.

..PETERS..

...WEST OF THE WA/ORE CASCADES...
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED OPEN
CU FIELD EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE WA/ORE TO AREAS INLAND ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FOR
UPDRAFTS TO REACH EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.

..PETERS.. 12/14/2010

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