Thursday, December 16, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161941
SWODY1
SPC AC 161939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CST THU DEC 16 2010

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...AND THUS NO ADDITION OF ANY
THUNDER THREAT AREAS WILL OCCUR THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 12/16/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0945 AM CST THU DEC 16 2010/

...SYNOPSIS...
BLOCK NEAR GREENLAND WILL KEEP EXISTING UPR LOW QSTNRY OVER THE ST
LAWRENCE VLY THIS PERIOD AS DISTURBANCE NOW ENTERING SRN MN/NRN IA
SHEARS ESE TO THE LWR GRT LKS. MODERATE ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LWR 48...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SRN
BRANCH FROM THE SWRN DESERTS TO THE S ATLANTIC CST.

AT LWR LVLS...POLAR AIR WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS...WITH
REINFORCING SURGE IN WAKE OF TN SFC WAVE LIKELY REACHING THE GULF
AND S ATLANTIC CSTS BY 12Z FRI. LOW LVL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THE TN WAVE SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AS SYSTEM DAMPENS IN
CONFLUENT FLOW OVER NC. WHILE AREAS/BANDS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
MAY PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTN E OF THE WAVE...DEPTH/STRENGTH OF
ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR CHARGE SEPARATION/
THUNDER.

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