SWODY1
SPC AC 290559
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CST TUE DEC 28 2010
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A WEAKENING TROUGH SHIFTS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE S CENTRAL
CONUS...A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING/EXPANDING SEWD
INTO THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH A BROAD LOW EMERGING FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...SERN TX/SRN LA...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN TX AND INTO ERN OK/AR/NWRN LA...IN
ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET.
PERSISTENT SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING INTO THE GULF COAST...BUT WITH AN INCOMPLETELY MODIFIED
GULF AIRMASS...EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO RISE ONLY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 ONSHORE. AS A RESULT...MIXED-LAYER CAPE IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN BELOW 500 J/KG...AND WITH LACK OF A CLEAR LOW-LEVEL
FOCUS...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK/DISORGANIZED.
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOLER AIR ALOFT SWEEPS
ACROSS THIS AREA...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY EVOLVE -- AND GIVEN
MID-LEVEL WSWLYS NEAR 50 KT...A FEW MARGINAL HAIL/WIND EVENTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COAST...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE WELL BELOW SLIGHT
RISK THRESHOLDS ATTM.
WHILE STORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD TOWARD/ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
LATE...AN EVEN MORE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS THAT
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
..GOSS/GARNER.. 12/29/2010
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