Wednesday, December 29, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291252
SWODY1
SPC AC 291250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CST WED DEC 29 2010

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TX/LA...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS TX. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
HAVE BEEN TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH 50S DEWPOINTS WELL
INTO TX. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS ONLY
PARTIALLY MODIFIED AND RICH MOISTURE RETURN IS UNLIKELY TODAY.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN TODAY NEAR THE TROUGH...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY NEAR VCT/PSX WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE TX GULF COAST. STEEPENING
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED IMPROVING WIND
FIELDS WILL PROMOTE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL
BE THE LACK OF TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS AOB 60F/ AND
RATHER MARGINAL CAPE VALUES /GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG/.
NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED CELLS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS OR
EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO.

..HART/SMITH.. 12/29/2010

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