SWODY1
SPC AC 060055
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST SUN DEC 05 2010
VALID 060100Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-AIR PATTERN PERSISTS OVER CONUS...CHARACTERIZED
BY LARGE CYCLONE CENTERED OVER HUDSON VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS
REGION...RIDGING FROM N-CENTRAL MEX TO CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND MEAN
TROUGHING OVER NERN PAC. STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE CA...WITH EMBEDDED MID-UPPER
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 39N119W. AS HEIGHTS FALL TO ITS NW IN
ADVANCE OF STG NRN PAC CYCLONE...SHORTWAVE WILL ASSUME MORE NEGATIVE
TILT...BUT ALSO...WILL DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT INLAND. TROUGH SHOULD
CROSS CA COAST AROUND 06Z...MOVING NEWD OVER FAR NRN CA AND WRN NV
BY 12Z. AT 00Z...RELATED SFC COLD FRONT WAS EVIDENT IN REFLECTIVITY
IMAGERY AS FINE LINE ABOUT 45 WSW MRY...AND SHOULD MOVE ASHORE
BETWEEN POINT REYES AND POINT CONCEPTION BEFORE 03Z.
...CA...
EXPECT TSTM POTENTIAL WITH TWO PRIMARY REGIMES...
1. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION...MAINLY IN BKN BAND NOW CROSSING COAST
FROM SFO BAY AREA SWD PAST MRY BUT ALSO WITH ISOLATED CELLS AHEAD OF
THAT BAND. ALTHOUGH WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
EVIDENT..SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL THETAE EXISTS TO SUPPORT ELEVATED
MUCAPE UP TO ABOUT 250 J/KG...ONCE SOME UNREALISTIC
ABSOLUTELY-UNSTABLE LAYERS ALOFT ARE SMOOTHED OUT OF OAK SOUNDING.
2. SHALLOWER POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION IN REGIME OF ENHANCED
LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RELATED TO MIDLEVEL CORRIDOR OF STG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. ALTHOUGH PRECIP/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
WEAKER IN THIS REGIME...MUCAPE UP TO ABOUT 250 J/KG ALSO IS POSSIBLE
IN SUPPORT OF OCNL THUNDER.
..EDWARDS.. 12/06/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment