Thursday, December 23, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231227
SWODY1
SPC AC 231225

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 AM CST THU DEC 23 2010

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN ROCKIES INTO SRN PLAINS...

POLAR BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH IMPULSE ROTATING SEWD THROUGH
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...SUPPORTING BROADER-SCALE TROUGH
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SAME TIME...COMPACT VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL
PROGRESS EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...PHASING WITH EVOLVING POLAR
BRANCH SYSTEM...ESTABLISHING A POSITIVELY-TILTED FULL-LATITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY CYCLONE NOW
ANALYZED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL REFORM OVER SERN CO/NERN
NM LATER TODAY PRIOR TO DEVELOPING SEWD ALONG PACIFIC FRONT PUSHING
EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY OVER
THE SRN ROCKIES WHERE THE COUPLING OF A DIABATICALLY-WARMED BOUNDARY
LAYER AND THE COLD CORE OF MIDLEVEL SYSTEM YIELD POCKETS OF MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. AS THIS ACTIVITY STARTS TO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSTREAM TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL
INCREASE THROUGH FRI MORNING AS PACIFIC FRONT ENCOUNTERS AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS RETURNING NWD THROUGH TX. HERE...
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA IN CONJUNCTION WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
AND DCVA AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY ELEVATED
TSTMS FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO ERN OK. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
QUITE MARGINAL AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

..MEAD/STOPPKOTTE.. 12/23/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

No comments: