SWODY1
SPC AC 290100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CST TUE DEC 28 2010
VALID 290100Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...PARTS OF THE ERN HALF OF TX INTO SERN OK AND THE ARKLATEX...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE LARGER AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN TX. EXPECT
LIGHTNING COVERAGE TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT...AND SPREAD NEWD INTO SERN
OK AND THE ARKLATEX AS LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION
INCREASE.
HAVE REMOVED LOW PROBABILITY WIND THREAT FROM S TX THIS FORECAST.
WHILE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE UNCAPPED NEAR SURFACE-BASED CAPE
-- AND THUS LOW-END WIND THREAT GIVEN THE AMPLE SHEAR ACROSS THE
REGION -- THE RUC AND OTHER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED PARCELS THROUGH THE PERIOD BY AN
ELEVATED WARM NOSE. EXAMINATION OF THE OBSERVED 00Z CORPUS CHRISTI
SOUNDING REVEALS A SIZEABLE INVERSION AT 700 MB...IN LINE WITH THE
RUC FORECAST. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z CORPUS CHRISTI MODEL SOUNDING
FROM THE NAM IS UNCAPPED -- AND THUS SUSPECT THAT THE LACK OF AN
INVERSION INDICATED BY THE NAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF S TX
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD IS ERRONEOUS.
...COASTAL PAC NW...
SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL/EMBEDDED LIGHTNING REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PAC NW LATE...AS THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE COAST.
MAIN THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO BE POST FRONTAL...IN ONSHORE/UPSLOPE
FLOW REGIME.
..GOSS.. 12/29/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment