Friday, December 10, 2010

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 101724
SWODY2
SPC AC 101722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2010

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SUBSTANTIALLY AND BEGIN TO TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...AS A STRONG
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TOWARD THE MID
MS VALLEY/MID SOUTH REGION.

AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP QUICKLY
EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. S OF A DEEPENING LOW EXPECTED TO
SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AN OCCLUDED LOW IS FORECAST
INVOF LOWER MI...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A TRIPLE POINT
INVOF SRN VA SWWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

...LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
WITH STRONGER COOLING ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL NW OF SURFACE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THIS REGION FROM AFTERNOON ONWARD...POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE
WARM-SECTOR DESTABILIZATION APPEARS MINIMAL DESPITE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

NONETHELESS...EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS -- WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING STRIKES -- TO DEVELOP INVOF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.
WITH FAST FLOW FORECAST FROM JUST ABOVE GROUND LEVEL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TROPOSPHERE...A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO -- OR
EVEN AN BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO -- CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION FORECAST ATTM DUE TO
THERMODYNAMIC DEFICIENCIES...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE
LIMITED.

..GOSS.. 12/10/2010

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