Wednesday, December 29, 2010

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 290659
SWODY2
SPC AC 290658

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CST WED DEC 29 2010

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP WESTERN STATES TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE
PLAINS ON THURSDAY...WITH THE LEAD BRUNT OF THIS TROUGH/EXIT REGION
OF A STRONG POLAR JET EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR DEEP CONVECTION/SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

...EASTERN OK/ARKLATEX THURSDAY NIGHT...
AS THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM EJECTS/TAKES ON A MORE NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT...DUAL ROUNDS OF PLAINS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WITH AN ATTENDANT LEE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT GRADUALLY DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.
AT THE SAME TIME...A MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTHWARD AS A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS/WARM SECTOR BECOMES
INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR DEEP CONVECTION/TSTMS TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY PROBABLE/PREVALENT ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
/MAINLY AFTER 03Z/ ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK. AS
THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING ALOFT GRAZE THE WARM
SECTOR...SUCH DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BOTH IN A WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVEYOR ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX/OZARKS...AS WELL AS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD NEAR A
SHARPENING TRIPLE POINT ACROSS OK/NORTH TX/SOUTHERN KS.

THE COMBINATION OF WEAK BUT ADEQUATE BUOYANCY /UPWARDS OF 500 J PER
KG MLCAPE/ AMID UPPER 50S/NEAR 60F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...COUPLED WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR /AIDED BY
A 45-50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET/...WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A
CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELLS/ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF A TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING WIND RISK THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY.

UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE SPECIFIC EXTENT OF WARM SECTOR
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION...AS WELL AS THE NOCTURNAL/LATE NIGHT
TIMING OF THE PERCEIVED PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL...PRECLUDE A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 12/29/2010

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