Thursday, December 9, 2010

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 090809
SWODY3
SPC AC 090808

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CST THU DEC 09 2010

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST...
RAPID CHANGES WILL BE UNDERWAY ON SAT/D3 AS A DIGGING UPPER SPEED
MAX AMPLIFIES A TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. AND INTO THE MS VALLEY
BY SUN MORNING. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING
OF THE AMPLIFICATION AND LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT IN
GENERAL...A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD EXIST FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY
SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND SW INTO WRN LA BY 00Z SUN. THERE WILL BE
LITTLE TIME TO GET QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM DUE TO PRESENCE OF VERY COOL AND DRY AIR
OVER THE ERN U.S. AND WRN ATLANTIC. NONETHELESS...DEWPOINTS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S F ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAYTIME.

WHILE GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE
SURFACE...LIMITING INSTABILITY AND KEEPING THE AREA CAPPED MUCH OF
THE DAY...A 30-40 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AND N-S TROPOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR AN AREA OF MARGINAL
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP FROM LA INTO SERN AR AND
MS...SPREADING EWD INTO PORTIONS OF AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY
12Z SUN. AIDING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG VERTICAL
VELOCITIES ALONG IT. GIVEN SUCH STRONG FORCING...WILL INTRODUCE LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WIND.

..JEWELL.. 12/09/2010

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