SWODY3
SPC AC 230747
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 AM CST THU DEC 23 2010
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...SYNOPTIC PATTERN AMPLIFICATION FCST THIS
PERIOD WITHIN BROADER/LONGWAVE REGIME OF TROUGHING OFFSHORE PAC
COAST...RIDGING OVER ROCKIES AND TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM. BY
25/12Z-25/18Z TIME FRAME...NRN-STREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD FROM
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY SEWD ACROSS TN VALLEY REGION...EFFECTIVELY
ABSORBING WHAT IS LEFT OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY REGION. BY END OF PERIOD...BROAD CYCLONE
SHOULD EVOLVE OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES...UPPER OH VALLEY AND N-CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WITH TROUGH SSWWD ACROSS GA AND MID-UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX ACROSS MN/IA/AR/SWRN MS/SRN GA.
...FL...
INITIALLY WEAK SFC FRONTAL-WAVE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD FROM
EXTREME N-CENTRAL/NERN GULF...ACROSS EXTREME NRN FL AND SERN
GA...BEFORE DEEPENING CONSIDERABLY OVER ATLANTIC LATE IN PERIOD. AS
THIS OCCURS...SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND ACCELERATE
SEWD/EWD...REACHING ERN PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE AROUND 26/00Z...AND
SRN PORTIONS FL PENINSULA BY 26/12Z. WHILE SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP OVER LAND INVOF FRONT...PRIND GREATEST BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN OVER OPEN GULF/ATLANTIC WATERS. WEAK
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ENSURE THAT LARGEST/DEEPEST BUOYANCY
REMAINS AWAY FROM LAND...OVER MORE OPTIMALLY WARM/MOIST MARINE
FLUXES OF LOOP CURRENT AND GULF STREAM.
...CA...
ANOTHER IN SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS -- EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW
BELT ASSOCIATED WITH NERN PAC MEAN TROUGHING -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ASHORE SRN/CENTRAL CA COAST DURING 26/06Z-26/12Z TIME FRAME...BASED
ON BULK OF SREF GUIDANCE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS MAY PRECEDE THIS PERTURBATION OVER CA IN STG
LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME...OCCUR ALONG SFC COLD
FRONT...AND/OR DEVELOP IN COLDER AIR ALOFT NEAR MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND
BEHIND FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY IN EACH
INSTANCE. ATTM...SVR THREAT APPEARS TOO MRGL AND DEPENDENT ON
MESOSCALE PROCESSES TO ASSIGN UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES.
..EDWARDS.. 12/23/2010
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