SWODY3
SPC AC 280828
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST TUE DEC 28 2010
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE LARGE SCALE DISCREPANCIES EXIST AMONGST 00Z ECMWF/NAM/GFS
GUIDANCE...GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT A DEEP WESTERN STATES
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE PLAINS...WITH THE LEAD
BRUNT/EXIT REGION OF A STRONG POLAR JET EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR DEEP CONVECTION /INCLUDING SEVERE
POTENTIAL/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
...EASTERN OK/ARKLATEX...
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO/CAVEATS AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WITH
AN ATTENDANT LEE TROUGH/COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DEVELOPING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME...A MODIFIED GULF
AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS/WARM SECTOR BECOMES INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR DEEP CONVECTION/TSTMS TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY PROBABLE/PREVALENT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN OK AND ARKLATEX...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT
FALLS/FORCING ALOFT GRAZE THE WARM SECTOR. THE POTENTIAL COMBINATION
OF WEAK BUT ADEQUATE BUOYANCY AMID UPPER 50S/NEAR 60F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS...COUPLED WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AMPLE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR /AIDED BY A 40+ KT LOW LEVEL JET/...COULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELLS/ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POTENTIALLY
CAPABLE OF A TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING WIND RISK. WHILE UNCERTAINTIES
EXIST REGARDING THE TIMING/EXTENT AND LIKELIHOOD OF A SEVERE RISK
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST A
MARGINAL/CONDITIONAL-TYPE RISK ARE WARRANTED.
..GUYER.. 12/28/2010
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