SWODY3
SPC AC 290830
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST WED DEC 29 2010
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OZARKS/MID-SOUTH AND
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
PER 00Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE...NEW YEARS EVE WILL SEE A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...AND A COLD FRONT SPREADS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY. APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND A
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD...COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES...WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE TSTMS NEW YEARS EVE.
...OZARKS/ARKLATEX TO MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY...
VIA THE ARRIVAL OF APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...EXTENSIVE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY AND
ARKLATEX...EASTWARD TO PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTIES OF EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION
COMPLICATES THE DETAILS OF POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION /ESPECIALLY
WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT/...EVEN WHILE A MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS WITH 60+
F SURFACE DEWPOINTS RETURNS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS
VALLEY.
PENDING AFOREMENTIONED DETAILS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT RELATIVELY
LOW-TOPPED SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AS FAR NORTH
AS THE LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...IN RELATIVELY CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW/BRUNT OF LARGE SCALE FORCING.
OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT FARTHER
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN A
HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS...WHERE RELATIVELY MORE CONSEQUENTIAL
DESTABILIZATION SEEMS PROBABLE.
OVERALL...EVEN WITH RELATIVELY LIMITED BUOYANCY...A VERY STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT A MULTI-MODAL POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS/QLCS DEVELOPMENT...WITH POSSIBILITIES FOR DAMAGING
WINDS/SOME TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO SOME SEVERE HAIL.
..GUYER.. 12/29/2010
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