SWOD48
SPC AC 080815
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CST WED DEC 08 2010
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. INTO THE MS VALLEY BY SUN MORNING. WHILE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...CONSENSUS IS FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN
AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY BY
00Z...QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY BY SUN MORNING. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR TO THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE EVENT CONTINUES TO BE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEVELS.
AN AREA OF RAIN...PERHAPS WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDER...IS LIKELY
TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY SAT MORNING
ON THE NOSE OF A 30+ KT LOW LEVEL JET. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
PERSIST DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD LIE ROUGHLY ALONG THE MS RIVER FROM AR/TN SWD INTO LA AT 00Z
SUN. AT LEAST MID TO UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS SHOULD ADVECT NWD ACROSS
LA AND MS DURING THE DAY. RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION WITH RELATIVELY POOR LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED. WITH RAPIDLY VEERING WIND
FIELDS...AND CAPPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND/OR WARM FRONT INTERSECTION WHERE FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE SEVERE
THREAT...BUT OVERALL EVENT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW FOR ANY AREAS THIS
FAR OUT.
..JEWELL.. 12/08/2010
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