SWOD48
SPC AC 280950
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CST TUE DEC 28 2010
VALID 311200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
PER 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE...PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE ON THE EXPECTED
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL-EASTERN CONUS THROUGH DAYS 4/5 FRIDAY/SATURDAY. A STRONG
DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD A RELATIVELY MOIST WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE ON DAY 4/NEW YEARS EVE...FOR
WHICH A SEVERE THREAT MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID-SOUTH AND MIDDLE/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
WHILE A SLIGHT-RISK CALIBER SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS/SOME TORNADOES...IS CERTAINLY
PLAUSIBLE WITHIN THIS GENERAL CORRIDOR ON DAY 4/FRIDAY...CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE A 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREA.
THIS IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO A DEGREE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
VARIABILITY...AS WELL AS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE DEGREE/QUALITY
OF MOISTURE RETURN/RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION IN COLLOCATION WITH THE
BRUNT OF LARGE SCALE FORCING.
A FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
INTO DAY 5/NEW YEARS DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT SEVERE TSTM
POTENTIAL OTHERWISE APPEARS LOW AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE
AND COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL BY DAYS 6/7 SUNDAY/MONDAY.
..GUYER.. 12/28/2010
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