SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101930
NDZ000-110030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 101930Z - 110030Z
BANDED SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES WILL EVOLVE OVER CNTRL
ND THROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 50-70 MILE
CORRIDOR CENTERED FROM KISN-40N KBIS-30E KJMS.
LATEST RUC FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS WILL FALL RAPIDLY BELOW 30 MB ACROSS CNTRL ND THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT BANDED SNOWFALL TO EXPAND ESE AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE OVER ERN MT CONTINUES ON A TREK INTO SWRN ND LATER THIS
EVENING. CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE THAT AN INCREASINGLY DEEP LAYER OF
SATURATED ASCENT WITH TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS 15 DEG C WILL EXIST
AMIDST MODEST MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. BANDS WILL TEND TO
NARROW/INTENSIFY WITH TIME AS WEAKLY NEGATIVE EPV BEGINS TO
MATERIALIZE BY EARLY EVENING.
WHILE WATER EQUIVALENT HOURLY PCPN RATES WILL NOT BE EXCESSIVE...THE
15+:1 SNOW RATIOS WILL COMPENSATE AND SNOWFALL RATES WILL EASILY
EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 15Z SREF
GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY OF THESE RATES...PEAKING
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z IN CNTRL ND.
..RACY.. 12/10/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 48200260 47870033 47769883 47659839 47239799 46669805
46349841 46539989 46720096 46900208 47080269 47320308
47550349 47740379 48020358 48230326 48200260
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