Sunday, January 2, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020512
SWODY1
SPC AC 020511

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 PM CST SAT JAN 01 2011

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK AND TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MS
VALLEY EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS BY 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...A COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS WILL SPREAD SEWD BEHIND THE TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS AND
WILL SETTLE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM THE DELMARVA SWWD ACROSS GA AND NRN FL SUN
MORNING...MOVING OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY OVER GA AND NRN
FL. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT INTO THE CNTRL CA COAST WITH
COOLER AIR ALOFT BUT MINIMAL INSTABILITY FOR ANY VIGOROUS
CONVECTION.

...GA/NRN FL...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE PIEDMONT SWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE
EARLY SUNDAY...AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SWEEPS EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. INSTABILITY LEVELS
WILL BE VERY WEAK AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A RATHER COOL BOUNDARY
LAYER. AS SUCH...ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY...AND
GIVEN SUCH WEAK INSTABILITY/POOR LAPSE RATES...SEVERE WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY.

..JEWELL/HURLBUT.. 01/02/2011

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