SWODY1
SPC AC 040506
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 PM CST MON JAN 03 2011
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE LOWER 48 TODAY
WITH CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. A WEAK
UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL PROCEED EWD AND
WILL PHASE WITH A SEWD MOVING TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
AFTER 00Z. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD FORM OVER
SERN TX/LA OVERNIGHT AND INTO WED MORNING WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
...SERN TX/LA...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH FROM THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO
INTO DEEP S TX DURING THE DAY. ESELY SURFACE FLOW WILL HELP BRING
LOWER 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS INTO S TX. IN ADDITION TO LACK
OF HEATING DUE TO STRATUS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPING
INVERSION AROUND 800 MB WHICH WILL HAMPER DAYTIME DEVELOPMENT. THE
BEST CHANCE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH NEARS...MAINLY AFTER 00Z...FROM SE TX
INTO LA. AT THAT TIME...ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION WILL DEEPEN
THE MOIST LAYER WITH PARCELS REACHING THE LFC. LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND A COOL/STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER.
..JEWELL/HURLBUT.. 01/04/2011
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