SWODY1
SPC AC 150453
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1053 PM CST FRI JAN 14 2011
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A DIGGING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO WILL DECELERATE AND
BEGIN TO TURN EWD TOWARDS THE SRN RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...MODEST GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR OVER S TX AND
RESULT IN MARGINAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT MOVING S
INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS.
...SOUTH TX...
MODEST MOISTENING IS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER S TX AS SLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW HAS INCREASED IN RESPONSE TO AN ANTICYCLONE BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SHOULD YIELD MUCAPE LESS THAN 200 J/KG. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A FEW
SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE S TX GULF
COAST...CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE MODERATELY SHEARED WITH VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE AN UNCONDITIONAL
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 01/15/2011
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