SWODY1
SPC AC 291247
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2011
VALID 291300Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS BAJA CA. THIS FEATURE WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN MEXICO
TODAY AND INTO THE BIG BEND REGION THIS EVENING...BEFORE EMERGING
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH TX LATE TONIGHT. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY/
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER TX WILL ALLOW
PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE REGION.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TX BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-750 J/KG.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS TX DUE TO A STRONG MID
LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AND WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT. INCREASING
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY BEGIN TO ERODE THE CAP ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE BETWEEN DRT-LRD BY 00Z...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. STORM SCALE MODEL
SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO SUPPORT SOME UPSCALE ORGANIZATION OF STORMS
AFTER 06Z...POSING A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE RISK AREA.
..HART/COHEN.. 01/29/2011
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