SWODY1
SPC AC 311244
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011
VALID 311300Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX...
...TX...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POWERFUL MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS AZ AND NORTHWEST MEXICO.
AS THIS SYSTEM TURNS EASTWARD LATER TODAY...PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS TX WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
YIELD A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500
J/KG. A CAPPING INVERSION AND WEAK LIFT WILL SUPPRESS ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...BUT INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SOUTHWARD-MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL TX AFTER DARK. THE MAJORITY OF THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND REMAIN
ELEVATED. NEVERTHELESS... STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF HAIL IN THE
STRONGER CELLS. IF ANY STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT
COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TX AND
SOUTHERN OK THROUGH 12Z.
..HART/GRAMS.. 01/31/2011
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