SWODY1
SPC AC 241225
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 AM CST MON JAN 24 2011
VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...
MID TO UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
THIS MORNING WILL DIG SWD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...
CONTRIBUTING TO AMPLIFICATION OF POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH...THE SRN
EXTENT OF WHICH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK CYCLONE ANALYZED OFF THE S TX COAST
AS OF 11Z IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DRIFT EWD TODAY PRIOR TO
DEEPENING WHILE DEVELOPING MORE NEWD TO OFF THE SRN LA COAST BY THE
END OF THE DAY ONE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED OVER
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS OF THE WRN/CNTRL GULF MAY TEND TO
DEVELOP SLIGHTLY NWD TOWARD THE COAST IN ADVANCE OF THE MIGRATORY
SURFACE LOW.
ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE EARLY THIS
MORNING OFF THE UPPER TX COAST...LARGELY DRIVEN BY WAA AND CONTINUED
AIR MASS MOISTENING OCCURRING ALONG LLJ DYNAMICALLY FORCED BY
ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THESE
SAME PROCESSES SHOULD MAINTAIN A CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CONTAINING EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE SHELF WATERS TODAY WITH SPORADIC
BURSTS OF LIGHTNING AFFECTING IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY TONIGHT...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE N-CNTRL GULF WILL BE
HASTENED BY THE APPROACH OF SRN PLAINS MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND COUPLING
OF GULF STATES JET STREAK WITH A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK
PROGRESSING THROUGH CNTRL MEXICO INTO THE SWRN GULF. 24/06Z
DETERMINISTIC GFS...24/00Z ECMWF AND SOME SREF MEMBERS INDICATE THAT
THE SURFACE LOW MAY APPROACH THE SERN LA COAST BETWEEN
25/09-12Z...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED OR NEAR
SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF FAR SRN LA. ATTM...ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF
UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES.
..MEAD.. 01/24/2011
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