SWODY1
SPC AC 041233
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 AM CST TUE JAN 04 2011
VALID 041300Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM
QSTNRY LOW OFF THE SRN CA CST. DISTURBANCE NOW NEARING THE FOUR
CORNERS EXPECTED TO MOVE E TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES TONIGHT... BEFORE
WEAKENING IN CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE OZARKS EARLY WED. DRY/AND OR
POLAR AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL AT LWR LVLS OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE
CONUS. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE THE LWR TX CSTL PLN AND...WITH
TIME...THE UPR TX CSTL PLN AND FAR SRN LA AS NWRN GULF CSTL FRONT
FURTHER DEVELOPS AND EDGES SLIGHTLY N IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
FOUR CORNERS IMPULSE. DEEP CONVECTION/SCTD TSTMS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE PERIOD.
...SE TX/LA...
WEAK FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM S TX ENE INTO THE NWRN GULF WILL
SOMEWHAT STRENGTHEN TODAY/TONIGHT...AND SHOULD DEVELOP EWD ACROSS
EXTREME SRN LA BY 12Z WED...AS A WEAK WAVE BRIEFLY EVOLVES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE.
ESELY SFC FLOW INVOF FRONT WILL BRING LWR 60S F DEWPOINTS INTO SE TX
THIS EVE AND INTO SRN LA EARLY WED. BUT LOW AMPLITUDE WSW FLOW AT
700 MB WILL MAINTAIN STOUT EML CAP ACROSS REGION...AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING. THUS...LIKELIHOOD FOR DIURNAL STORMS
APPEARS MINIMAL.
HOWEVER...THE CHANCE FOR ELEVATED TSTMS WILL INCREASE THIS EVE
THROUGH EARLY WED AS WAA/LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED UPR DISTURBANCE. IT APPEARS THAT THE
STRONGEST STORMS...AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED ACTIVITY...
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE NWRN GULF. ONE OR TWO STRONGER CELLS COULD
...HOWEVER...GLANCE FAR SRN LA LATE IN THE PERIOD. ATTM NEITHER
CAPE NOR CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO POSE A
SUSTAINED SVR WEATHER RISK ONSHORE.
..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 01/04/2011
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