SWODY1
SPC AC 061247
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 AM CST THU JAN 06 2011
VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE APPALACHIANS SEWD INTO FL...AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIG SEWD DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS WILL AID IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED
E-W ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...OFF THE FL COAST THIS EVENING.
...SRN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA...
A BAND OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR
SRQ TO VRB AT 12Z...AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SEWD AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION...THE COMBINATION OF POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK SURFACE WARMING SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPES ONLY UP TO
500 J/KG. WHILE THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE MOSTLY WLY...SPEED SHEAR IS
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR WELL ORGANIZED AND SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER...THE E-W ORIENTATION OF THE THUNDERSTORM BAND AND PARALLEL
WLY FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS NOT
HIGH. WHILE SMALL N-S ORIENTED LINE SEGMENTS MAY DEVELOP FROM TIME
TO TIME WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORM BAND...THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT INDICATES THAT THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER/DAMAGING WINDS IS LOW...BUT STILL SUPPORTS 5% SEVERE WIND
PROBABILITIES.
..IMY/GARNER.. 01/06/2011
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