SWODY1
SPC AC 021249
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CST SUN JAN 02 2011
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP CLOSED LOW NOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL ADVANCE FARTHER N INTO
CANADA THIS PERIOD AS ASSOCIATED POSITIVE TILT IMPULSE NOW
APPROACHING AR CONTINUES E TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY THIS EVE...AND
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST EARLY MON. THIS SETUP WILL LEAVE MUCH OF
THE LWR 48 IN ZONAL FLOW...DOWNSTREAM FROM COMPACT LOW NOW OFF THE
CNTRL CA CST.
AT THE SFC...A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
CAROLINAS TODAY AS AR DISTURBANCE APPROACHES COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED
THE CNTRL STATES OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. THE WAVE SHOULD MOVE OFF
THE NE NC CST BY EARLY EVE.
...SERN U.S...
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALONG/AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONT FROM
THE ERN CAROLINAS SW INTO FL TODAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SLOWLY
E/SEWD. THIS MAY SUPPORT SCTD CONVECTION/POSSIBLE TSTMS... MOST
LIKELY OVER S GA AND NRN/CNTRL FL. SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
ENHANCE CONVERGENCE/CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTN OVER ERN
NC...WHERE AMPLE SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED ACTIVITY/
UPDRAFT ROTATION. HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED DEGREE OF SFC HEATING
...LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW...AND CONVERGENCE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN TO SUPPORT THUNDER.
ELSEWHERE...ASCENT AND MID LVL CAA ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW MAY
YIELD A FEW STORMS ALONG THE CNTRL CA CST THIS AFTN/EARLY TONIGHT.
..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 01/02/2011
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