SWODY1
SPC AC 191541
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0941 AM CST WED JAN 19 2011
VALID 191630Z - 201200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA TODAY. DESPITE WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FRONTAL ASCENT IS PROGGED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AS THE UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS NEWD. ALSO...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE-INDUCED DRYING IS
IMPINGING ON THE FL PENINSULA...WITH THE 12Z KMFL SOUNDING
INDICATING A WARM 650-600-MB LAYER. WHILE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE EXTREME SERN FL PENINSULA
AND THE FL KEYS THIS AFTERNOON...THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS SUGGEST
THAT THE THREAT NOW APPEARS TOO LOW FOR ANY THUNDER OUTLOOK.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS CO TODAY. WHILE STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW FOR
AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT THE LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY PRECLUDES INTRODUCTION
OF THUNDER PROBABILITIES ATTM.
..COHEN/GARNER/HALES.. 01/19/2011
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