Monday, January 3, 2011

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 030610
SWODY2
SPC AC 030609

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 AM CST MON JAN 03 2011

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NWRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE THEIR EARLIER TRENDS REGARDING THE
WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX/LA COAST
TUESDAY. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS IS IN
POSITION OF A COASTAL FRONT. THE NAM ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY TO EASE
INLAND A BIT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS
THE WIND SHIFT JUST OFFSHORE. GIVEN THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL AND ASCENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS DUE
TO THE WARM ADVECTIVE NATURE OF THE FORCING...IT APPEARS ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK REGION WILL REMAIN
SUB-SEVERE. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBS DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE BOUNDARY POSITION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER IF THE BOUNDARY MANAGES TO SURGE
INLAND WITH MORE BUOYANT AIRMASS THEN LOW PROBS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

..DARROW.. 01/03/2011

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