SWODY2
SPC AC 190512
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 PM CST TUE JAN 18 2011
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW WILL REACH THE SRN ROCKIES
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN LARGELY PHASED WITH A NRN
STREAM IMPULSE THAT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE UPPER MS AND OH
VALLEYS. SRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHEAR EWD AND WEAKEN AS IT
ADVANCES INTO THE GULF COASTAL REGION. OPERATIONAL NAM HAS TRENDED
TOWARD THE ECMWF...GFS AND SREF MEANS WHICH HAVE INDICATED A WEAKER
SURFACE LOW LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC LATER
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NEWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AND OFF MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT ADVANCING
THROUGH SRN PLAINS...SERN STATES AND NRN FL.
...NRN FL...
COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN GULF WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING
SURGE OF CP AIR. HOWEVER...THIS AIR WILL NOT PENETRATE VERY FAR S
AND FLOW WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO SELY OVER THE GULF LATE THURSDAY
AND SLY FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OVER TX IN RESPONSE TO SRN
STREAM IMPULSE. HOWEVER...THIS LOW WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THE PARENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS EWD AND DEAMPLIFIES. WITH PRIMARY SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH TOWARD MID ATLANTIC IN ASSOCIATION WITH
NRN BRANCH IMPULSE...850 MB FLOW OVER THE NRN GULF WILL STRENGTHEN
FROM A WLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIMIT RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE
INLAND ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT
INTO THE FL PENINSULA. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY
WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL ZONE OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
DESTABILIZATION FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO NRN FL. TIME OF DAY AND
ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN SUGGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER. FLOW AOA 500 MB
OF 50+ KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 45+ KT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. A LOW
END THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD DEVELOP
WITH SOME OF THE CONVECTION THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...ONLY
LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT MOST ARE WARRANTED.
..DIAL.. 01/19/2011
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