Friday, January 28, 2011

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 280701
SWODY2
SPC AC 280700

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2011

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT LARGE SCALE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS ON
SATURDAY. WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...A LOW LATITUDE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR BAJA...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
PROGRESSIVE/ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND REACH CENTRAL
TX LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING THE
NORTHERN CA COAST LATE SATURDAY COULD YIELD COME ISOLATED TSTMS
MAINLY FOR NORTHERN CA COASTAL AREAS/OFFSHORE WATERS.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON/NIGHT...
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO REACH CENTRAL TX
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
WEST TX AS AIRMASS MODIFICATION/MOISTURE RETURN OTHERWISE OCCURS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/SOUTHEAST TX. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
MORE CONSEQUENTIAL DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE
SHOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY/NUMEROUS SATURDAY NIGHT.

WITHIN A DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR NEAR/EAST OF A SHARPENING SURFACE
TROUGH/DRY LINE...THE LIKELIHOOD OF SURFACE BASED STRONG/PERHAPS
SEVERE TSTMS IS UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE MODEST DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR A CAPPING INVERSION IN
THE MID LEVELS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
DISCOUNTED AS WELL GIVEN STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
AGAIN THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IS UNCERTAIN WITHIN A
MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

IN ALL...BECAUSE OF SOME LARGE SCALE UNCERTAINTY AND UNKNOWNS
REGARDING THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN/CAPPING...WILL DEFER TO
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR POTENTIAL INTRODUCTION OF LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.

..GUYER.. 01/28/2011

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