SWODY2
SPC AC 281700
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2011
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN
MEXICO AND WRN TX EARLY SAT...SLOWLY SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF TX AND TO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY BY SUN MORNING. AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH SLY SURFACE FLOW ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
55-60 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS NWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. LIFT WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE RETURNING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNING ACROSS TX.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE NRN
CA COAST. COOLING ALOFT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN
VERY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE MAINLY
ALONG THE NRN CA COAST AND OFFSHORE.
...CNTRL/ERN TX...
STRONG HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ACROSS MOST OF WRN...CNTRL...AND N TX BY AFTERNOON. MID TO
UPPER 50S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD NWD INTO CNTRL/NRN
TX...BUT CAPPING WILL BE AN ISSUE MOST OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONGLY MIXED PROFILES ACROSS
W CNTRL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON...ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN AND WHERE HEATING WILL BE STRONGEST. HERE...ISOLATED DIURNAL
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY HIGH BASED IN NATURE
BUT CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS CONVERGENCE ALONG A
WEAK COLD FRONT INCREASES AND PROGRESSES EWD INTO A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...AND LIFT INCREASES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF -20 C...LARGE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL
CERTAINLY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWS.
HOWEVER...WITH ANTECEDENT CAPPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM
SECTOR...COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...AND WILL DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR ANY POTENTIAL
UPGRADE TO SLIGHT.
..JEWELL.. 01/28/2011
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