SWODY3
SPC AC 060822
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CST THU JAN 06 2011
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...SOUTH TX...
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WEST TX INTO THE
CONCHO VALLEY PRIMARILY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY3 PERIOD AS
AN ERN PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH FINALLY EJECTS EWD. THIS FEATURE WILL
INDUCE MODIFICATION OF WRN GOM AIRMASS ENABLING A MORE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER TO RETURN TO SOUTH TX. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SFC DEW POINTS AOA 60F WILL SPREAD INLAND AS FAR NORTH AS SAT BY
09/12Z. DESPITE THIS MOISTENING PROCESS LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STEEP WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY LIMIT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. EVEN SO...FOCUSED ASCENT WITHIN
VERY DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION NEAR
A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT...SWWD INTO PORTIONS OF NERN MEXICO
ALONG ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...POSSIBLY EVEN SUPERCELLULAR
IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY IT SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TX FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..DARROW.. 01/06/2011
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