SWODY3
SPC AC 070757
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 AM CST FRI JAN 07 2011
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A LARGE AND DEEP CYCLONE...WHICH MODELS INDICATE WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST...A BROAD BUT
WEAKER MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS A FAIRLY STRONG JET STREAK
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR
CORNERS REGION...A REMNANT IMPULSE /EMERGING FROM THE LOW NOW OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST/ IS PROGGED TO LIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/EASTERN
GULF STATES BY 12Z MONDAY.
THIS LATTER IMPULSE MAY BE SLOW TO WEAKEN...BUT THE BULK OF THE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOCUSED TO THE COOL SIDE OF A MODEST FRONTAL WAVE MIGRATING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
TRACK OF THE LOW TO THE GULF COAST...AND THE PROGGED STRENGTH OF THE
LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR IN ITS WARM SECTOR...THE
POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS INLAND CONVECTION...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE SUNDAY... PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA PARISHES.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE NEAR SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SIGNIFICANT
EASTERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE APPEARS TOO LOW TO SUPPORT SLIGHT RISK
SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..KERR.. 01/07/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment